Private beta opening soon

Paste an investment idea. See why it might be wrong.

Stress-test an investment thesis before you invest.

Bonsai Compass turns your thesis into a bull case, bear case, hidden assumptions, thesis breakers, missing evidence, and a conviction score.

Start free in private beta. No financial advice, no trade alerts.

For stocks, ETFs, macro, and crypto ideasFounding Pro planned at $19/mo

What Bonsai gives you back

Bonsai CompassChallenging thesis

Your thesis

“I want to buy a semiconductor ETF because AI infrastructure spending will keep growing.”

Bull Case

AI infrastructure spending could keep expanding as enterprises and cloud providers invest in compute capacity.

Bear Case

Expectations may already be priced in. Demand could normalize or hyperscaler spending could slow.

Hidden Assumptions

You assume AI workloads grow faster than efficiency gains and chip leaders keep pricing power.

Missing Information

ETF concentration, forward multiples, customer capex guidance, export-control exposure.

Thesis Breakers

Cloud providers cut AI capex, model efficiency reduces compute intensity, or export restrictions widen.

Conviction Score

Strong thesis, unresolved assumptions

74/100

A simpler pre-investment workflow.

Built for the moment when you have an idea, but not enough conviction yet.

  1. 1

    Paste your thesis

    Start with the stock, ETF, macro, or crypto idea you are already considering.

  2. 2

    Get the challenge

    Bonsai returns both sides of the case, the assumptions underneath it, and what could break it.

  3. 3

    Decide what to research

    Use the score and missing evidence list to know what deserves attention before capital is involved.

What the challenger checks.

  • Bull and bear case

    See the strongest version of the idea and the clearest reasons it could fail.

  • Hidden assumptions

    Surface the beliefs you are taking for granted before they become expensive.

  • Thesis breakers

    Define the events, data points, or market shifts that would weaken the case.

  • Conviction score

    Measure thesis completeness, evidence quality, downside clarity, and falsifiability.

  • No picks, alerts, or trade calls

    Bonsai challenges an idea you bring. It does not tell you what to buy.

For investors who already have an idea.

The question is not what to buy. It is whether your thesis deserves more conviction, more research, or more skepticism.

Is Bonsai Compass financial advice?

No. Bonsai Compass is a research workflow tool. It does not recommend trades, assets, allocations, or portfolio changes.

Does Bonsai Compass pick stocks?

No. It starts with an idea you already have and tests the logic, assumptions, risks, and missing evidence behind it.

What assets does it support?

Bonsai Compass is designed for stocks, ETFs, macro, and crypto investment ideas.

What is a thesis breaker?

A thesis breaker is an event, data point, or market shift that would materially weaken the reason you wanted to invest.

Early access pricing

Start free in private beta.

Try the thesis challenger at no cost. Founding Pro gives active investors more room for deeper analysis when access opens.

Free

$0

For testing the workflow before you commit

  • 1 thesis challenge per day
  • 10 AI follow-up messages
  • Core bull / bear case breakdown
  • Sentiment + guardrail checks
  • Saved thesis journal
Founding Pro

$19/mo

For serious self-directed investors

  • 50 thesis challenges per day
  • 400 AI follow-up messages
  • Deep Claude-powered analysis
  • Market context when available
  • Conviction scoring workflow
  • Priority access to new features

Early access pricing may change for future users. No trade alerts. No financial advice.

Bring the idea. Bonsai brings the challenge.

Join the private beta for a calmer way to test an investment idea before capital, emotion, and market noise get involved.