Is Bonsai Compass financial advice?
No. Bonsai Compass is a research workflow tool. It helps you challenge your own thesis and does not recommend trades, assets, allocations, or portfolio changes.
Private beta opening soon
Do not ask AI what to buy. Ask AI why you might be wrong.
AI investment thesis challenger
for serious self-directed investors.
Bonsai Compass is an AI-powered thesis challenger for investors. Turn an idea into a bull case, bear case, hidden assumptions, thesis breakers, and a conviction score before putting capital at risk.
Early access to the thesis challenger. No financial advice, no trade alerts.
Built for serious self-directed investorsStress-test stocks, ETFs, macro, and cryptoDesigned to challenge conviction, not chase noise
A second opinion built to disagree with you.
Bonsai CompassChallenging thesis
Your thesis
“I want to buy a semiconductor ETF because AI infrastructure spending will keep growing for years.”
Bull Case
AI infrastructure spending could keep expanding as enterprises, cloud providers, and governments invest in compute capacity, supporting long-term demand for leading semiconductor companies.
Bear Case
Expectations may already be priced in. Chip demand could normalize, margins could compress, or hyperscaler spending could slow after the current buildout cycle.
Hidden Assumptions
You assume AI workloads keep growing faster than efficiency gains. You assume semiconductor leaders retain pricing power and avoid major supply constraints.
Missing Information
ETF holdings concentration. Forward earnings multiples. Customer capex guidance. Export-control exposure. Inventory levels across the semiconductor supply chain.
Thesis Breakers
Cloud providers cut AI capex. Model efficiency reduces compute intensity. Export restrictions widen. A major holding misses revenue guidance for multiple quarters.
Conviction Score
Strong thesis, unresolved assumptions
74/100
How Bonsai Compass challenges a thesis.
A calm research workflow for the decision before the decision.
- 1
Enter the idea
Start with the investment thesis you are already considering across stocks, ETFs, macro, or crypto.
- 2
Challenge both sides
Review the bull case, bear case, hidden assumptions, missing information, and thesis breakers.
- 3
Score the conviction
See where the thesis is complete, where evidence is thin, and which assumptions carry the most risk.
- 4
Research what matters
Leave with clearer questions to investigate before capital, emotion, or market noise gets involved.
Information is everywhere. Conviction is rare.
Investors chase noise
Social feeds and headlines create urgency without rigor. Conviction forms before the thesis does.
Theses are rarely written down
Most ideas live as vague intuitions. Without structure, you cannot test assumptions or spot gaps.
Risks are discovered too late
The bear case surfaces after a position is open. By then, emotion has replaced analysis.
What is an investment thesis challenger?
An investment thesis challenger is a structured second opinion for an idea you already have. It does not pick assets for you. It helps you test the logic, assumptions, risks, and evidence behind your conviction.
Pressure-test the idea
Turn a sentence-level investment idea into a thesis with a bull case, bear case, and missing evidence.
Find what must be true
Surface the hidden assumptions behind the thesis so you can decide what deserves more research.
Define what breaks it
Identify the events, data points, or market shifts that would weaken the case before emotion gets involved.
Challenge every investment idea before you act.
Bull and bear case generation
See both sides of your thesis before you commit. Structured arguments, not sentiment.
Hidden assumption detection
Surface the beliefs you are taking for granted — the ones that matter most when they break.
Thesis breaker identification
Identify specific events or data points that would invalidate your investment case.
Conviction scoring
Measure how complete and stress-tested your thesis is before you allocate capital.
Stocks, ETFs, macro, and crypto
Challenge public-market, macro, and digital-asset ideas with context-aware analysis, not generic advice.
Clear thinking before capital.
Bonsai Compass is designed for the moment before a trade, when the question is not what to buy, but whether the thesis deserves your conviction.
Does Bonsai Compass pick stocks?
No. It starts with an idea you already have and tests the logic, assumptions, risks, and missing evidence behind it.
What assets does it support?
Bonsai Compass is designed for stocks, ETFs, macro, and crypto investment ideas.
What is a thesis breaker?
A thesis breaker is an event, data point, or market shift that would materially weaken the reason you wanted to invest.
What does the conviction score mean?
The score reflects thesis completeness, evidence quality, unresolved assumptions, downside clarity, and falsifiability. It is not a price target, expected return, or buy/sell signal.
Pricing
Professional conviction tooling.
Start free. Upgrade when you want deeper AI analysis and higher daily limits. No trade alerts. No financial advice.
Free
$0
For testing your first theses
- 1 thesis challenge per day
- 10 AI follow-up messages
- Sentiment + guardrail analysis
- Bull / bear case breakdown
- Thesis journal
Pro
$19/mo
For serious self-directed investors
- 50 thesis challenges per day
- 400 AI follow-up messages
- Deep Claude-powered analysis
- Sentiment thesis with heavy guardrails
- Conviction scoring + research workflow
- Priority access to new features
Build conviction before you invest.
Get early access to a calmer way to test an investment idea before capital, emotion, and market noise get involved.